Model Integration for Detailed Hazard Prediction

We have successfully integrated a number of detailed prediction cloud and plume models to operate alongside the standard ATP45 output of NBC-ANALYSIS. Some of these “integrated” versions of the core programme enable more detailed prediction of hazard downwind distances and effects to be produced for a more considered response after the initial warning and evacuation actions have been completed.

NATO Warning and Reporting and CIS procedures are moving into the areas of enhanced prediction. This term is to envelop all computer-based methods that go beyond what is manually feasible. The prime example today is the use of dispersion models to better access the potential hazards from CBRN threats.

Currently, no models have obtained the NATO stamp of approval for use in calculating the Warning Area. However, many models exist that will improve the commanders ability to judge the risks from CBRN incidents. These models are not yet at a maturity, where they could not be relied upon as the sole mean of warning, but they enhance the value of the operational picture by providing a “best guess” as to where the hazard will be present.

To allow optimum use of the modeling resources available, Bruhn NewTech has produced a model integration module for NBC-ANALYSIS. NBC-ANALYSIS currently interfaces the US developed HPAC model from Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the Dutch developed HAPPIE/RIOT model from TNO. Further integration work is in progress for other national models.

The advantages of an integrated solution are many, they include:

• Avoid the need for duplicate data entry. Data describing the event that has been entered in NBC-ANALYSIS is transferred to the model for its predictions. This reduces the time needed and the risk of introducing errors.
  
• Provide a common operational picture displaying both the ATP-45 Warning Areas and the model calculated Hazard Areas.
  
• Give the ability to reduce the risk attached to model calculations by using more than one model to evaluate the hazard and comparing the results within NBC-ANALYSIS.
  
• Provide the overview of the hazards using the map data and positions of own and enemy forces already present in NBC-ANALYSIS.
  
• Allow a phased approach, where the first phase is the immediate warning using ATP-45 templates.
  
• Allow sharing of modeled hazard areas between units and coalition partners. This can be used to allow experts to perform the model calculations and inform other units by transmitting the resulting areas.

The module is envisaged for use the following way:

• When an attack or incidents occur the operator use NBC-ANALYSIS to calculate the warning area to provide the commander with information for immediate actions.
  
• When more detailed information becomes available the operator can use the input from NBC-ANALYSIS and run the preferred model to assess the hazard in more detail – this provides the commander more information on which to base his decision on acceptable risks.
  
• Integrated model solutions in NBC-ANALYSIS will allow the operator to run, compare and verify model calculation results using the same, familiar user interface of the NBC-ANALYSIS software.
  
• Conversion of data and double input are not necessary and the commander will be presented with the combined results thereby the best background for his operational assessment and decisions.