Model Integration for Detailed Hazard Prediction

We have successfully integrated a number of detailed prediction cloud and plume models to operate alongside the standard ATP-45 output of NBC-Analysis. Some of these integrated versions of the core program enable more detailed prediction of hazard downwind distances and effects to be produced for a more considered response after the initial warning and evacuation actions have been completed.

NATO Warning and Reporting and CIS procedures are moving into the areas of enhanced prediction. This term is to envelop all computer-based methods that go beyond what is manually feasible. The prime example today is the use of dispersion models to better access to the potential hazards from CBRN threats.

Currently, no models have obtained the NATO stamp of approval for use in calculating the Warning Area. However, many models exist that will improve the commanders ability to judge the risks from CBRN incidents. These models are not yet at maturity, where they can be relied upon as the sole mean of warning, but they can enhance the value of the operational picture by providing a best guess as to where the hazard could be.

To allow optimum use of the modeling resources available, Bruhn NewTech has produced a model integration module for NBC-Analysis. NBC-Analysis currently interfaces the US developed HPAC model from Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), the US developed Joint Effects Model (JEM), the model for small CB templates from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and the Dutch developed HAPPIE/RIOT model from TNO. NBC-Analysis is prepared for integration to other national models.

The advantages of an integrated solution are many, they include:

• Avoid the need for duplicate data entry. Data describing the event that has been entered in NBC-Analysis is transferred to the model for its predictions. This reduces the time needed and the risk of introducing errors.
• Provide a common operational picture displaying both the ATP-45 Warning Areas and the model calculated Hazard Areas.
• Give the ability to reduce the risk attached to model calculations by using more than one model to evaluate the hazard and comparing the results within NBC-Analysis.
• Provide the overview of the hazards using the map data and positions of own and enemy forces already present in NBC-Analysis.
• Allow a phased approach, where the first phase is the immediate warning using ATP-45 templates.
• Allow sharing of modeled hazard areas between units and coalition partners. This can be used to allow experts to perform the model calculations and inform other units by transmitting the resulting areas.